The government is likely to cut petroleum product prices from December 1, 2025, thanks to a continued decline in global oil markets and reduced refined product rates. Estimates shared by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) on Friday indicate that both major fuels — petrol (MS) and high-speed diesel (HSD) — are set for a price reduction, offering much-needed relief to motorists and industries.
During the November 17–27 review period, international oil benchmarks showed consistent downward movement. Brent crude averaged $63.43 per barrel, marking a 2.5% decline from the previous cycle. WTI also slipped by 1.4% to $59.04 per barrel, while Arab Light registered a 2.2% drop to $65.61 per barrel.
Refined products followed the same trend, with petrol prices falling 2.7% to $74.32 per barrel and diesel declining 3.8% to $88.76 per barrel in the global market.
Based on the current pricing mechanism, HSD prices are projected to fall by Rs6.50 per litre for the December 1–15 period, bringing the expected price to around Rs271.94, compared to Rs278.44 in the previous fortnight. Petrol is also expected to become cheaper by Rs4.15 per litre, lowering the estimated price to Rs261.30 from Rs265.45 earlier.
“As per our estimates, the price of HSD is expected to decrease by Rs6.50 per litre, while MS price is expected to decline by Rs4.15 per litre, effective 1st Dec ’25,” AHL stated.
AHL further explained that weaker global oil markets and a 2.2% decline in Arab Light crude have contributed to the expected drop. Additionally, product spreads for HSD and MS contracted by 8% and 6%, respectively, creating more space for a price reduction.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) will submit its pricing summary to the Ministry of Finance by November 30. Although the official government announcement is still pending, market expectations strongly indicate a price cut for the first half of December.
