Pakistan’s economy posted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.4% in the third quarter (January–March) of the fiscal year 2024-25, according to provisional estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) during the 113th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) held on Tuesday.
This growth came despite a significant contraction in the industrial sector, which shrank by -1.14% in Q3. The overall growth was driven by positive performances in agriculture and services, which expanded by 1.18% and 3.99%, respectively.
Sectoral Breakdown:
Agriculture Sector:
- The agriculture sector posted a modest 1.18% growth despite a decline of -11.14% in important crops.
- The overall positive result came from:
- Other crops (+4.84%), bolstered by a 26% rise in mango production and an 11% increase in onion output.
- Livestock (+4.42%)
- Forestry (+4.25%)
- Fishing (+0.50%)
Industry Sector:
- The sector saw a decline of -1.14%, primarily due to:
- Mining & Quarrying (-3.96%)
- Large-Scale Manufacturing (-0.89%)
- Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (-7.72%)
- Construction (-9.12%)
Services Sector:
- The services sector saw a healthy 3.99% growth, supported by:
- Information & Communication (+18.44%)
- Finance & Insurance (+10.65%)
- Public Administration & Social Security (+13.73%)
- Other contributing areas include education (+4.63%), health & social work (+5.06%), and wholesale & retail trade (+1.57%).
Revised and Provisional GDP Estimates:
- Q1 and Q2 GDP growths for FY2023-24 were also updated:
- Q1: Revised to 1.37% (from 1.34%)
- Q2: Revised to 1.53% (from 1.73%)
- The provisional GDP growth for the full FY2024-25 is 2.68%, which is below the government’s target of 3.6%.
Sectoral Contributions to FY2024-25 Provisional Growth:
- Agriculture: +0.56%
- Industry: +4.77%
- Services: +2.91%
Economic Size and Per Capita Income:
- Total size of Pakistan’s economy:
- Rs114.7 trillion (~$410.96 billion) in FY2024-25
- Compared to Rs105.1 trillion (~$371.66 billion) previously
- Per capita income: Rs509,174 (~$1,824)
Expert Outlook:
In a note, Topline Securities projected FY2024-25 GDP growth between 2.5% and 3.0%, driven by:
- Agriculture: 1.8%
- Industry: 1%
- Services: 3.4%
Meanwhile, the final growth figure for FY2022-23 was also updated to -0.21%, a slight adjustment from the previous estimate of -0.22%.
