Here is what renewable growth will look like in 2023. Wind and solar are proliferating around the globe, but dryness is throwing a wrench in the works.
According to a report released today by energy think tank Ember, emissions from the world’s electrical generation plateaued in the first half of 2023, with a minor increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. Nevertheless, despite the expansion of wind and solar energy, unfavorable hydro conditions were likely made worse by climate change that kept emissions from declining.
(Ember’s document analyses electricity demand data from 78 nations covering 92% of the world’s population from January to June 2023 compared to the same period last year.)
The only two renewable energy sources to considerably increase their proportion of the world’s electricity were wind and solar, which combined provided 14.3% of it in the first half of 2023 compared to 12.8% in the same period last year.
In the first half of 2023, 50 countries set new monthly records for solar generation, which is expanding particularly quickly (+16%, +104 TWh). While the EU, US, and India each contributed roughly 12% to global growth, China continued to dominate the world in solar generation, contributing a staggering 43%.
However, due to droughts, hydro generation fell by an unprecedented 8.5%, or -177 TWh, in the first half of this year, with China responsible for 75% of this decline. In order to fill the worldwide hydro shortage, fossil fuel generation climbed somewhat, while in China, coal generation reached a record high (+8%, +203 TWh).
The power sector emissions would have decreased by 2.9% if worldwide hydro generation had remained constant from the previous year, and China’s coal generation would have expanded much more gradually.
Despite the hydro deficit, it could have been worse because of the modest rise in electricity demand, which contributed to slowing the increase in emissions. Only 0.4% more electricity was consumed globally in the first half of 2023 than during the same time in 2018, which is significantly less than the 10-year historical average (+2.6%).
Significant losses in coal power were observed, most notably in the EU (-23%), as a result of falls in demand in certain major economies caused by factors like warmer weather, demand-reduction initiatives, and reduced energy consumption as a result of the cost of living issue. As a result, emissions decreased in the US (-8.6%), South Korea (-3%), Japan (-12%), and the EU (-17%). India’s emissions decreased as a result of a modest increase in coal production due to moderate demand growth.
Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Senior Electricity Analyst at Ember and the Report’s Primary Author, said:
Whether or not emissions from the electricity sector will decrease in 2023 is still uncertain.
While the impressive expansion of wind and solar energy is encouraging, we cannot ignore the stark reality of unfavorable hydro circumstances made worse by climate change. We need to secure a global agreement to increase the capacity of renewable energy sources this decade since the world is currently teetering at the pinnacle of emissions from the power industry.
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