The World Economic Forum (WEF) has released its Global Risks Report 2026, identifying geo-economic confrontation as the foremost global risk for the upcoming year. This is followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather events, societal polarisation, and the spread of misinformation and disinformation.
Top Risks and Global Outlook
The report highlights that geo-economic confrontation is seen by 18% of respondents as the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026. It also ranks highest in severity over the next two years, climbing eight positions compared to the previous year. State-based armed conflict ranks second for 2026 but falls to fifth place when considering the two-year outlook.
In a world marked by increasing rivalries and prolonged disputes, these confrontations threaten global supply chains, economic stability, and the collaborative capacity needed to manage economic shocks.
Shifts in Geopolitical Dynamics
Looking ahead to the next decade, 68% of respondents anticipate a “multipolar or fragmented order” where middle and great powers compete to establish and enforce regional rules and norms, an increase of four percentage points from last year.
Economic and Societal Risks
- Economic downturn and inflation risks have surged eight ranks in the two-year outlook, now positioned at 11th and 21st respectively.
- The risk of an asset bubble burst has risen seven places, reaching 18th position.
- Misinformation and disinformation are ranked as the second-highest short-term risk, while cyber insecurity holds the sixth spot.
- Concerns about artificial intelligence have increased sharply, moving from 30th in the short term to fifth over the next ten years, reflecting worries about its impact on labor markets, society, and security.
- Societal polarisation is ranked fourth for 2026 and third by 2028, with inequality consistently placed seventh in both short- and long-term outlooks.
Inequality was also identified as the most interconnected global risk for the second consecutive year, with economic downturn following as the second-most interconnected risk, highlighting fears about cost-of-living pressures and widening disparities.
Environmental Risks and Information Integrity
While environmental risks have declined in short-term rankings, they remain critical over the next decade. Extreme weather is projected as the top risk for the 10-year horizon, followed by biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems.
The report notes a decline in severity scores for environmental risks in the short term, signaling a shift in immediate concerns.
Misinformation and disinformation pose significant challenges online, with the growing difficulty in distinguishing authentic from synthetic content across various media formats. The widespread use of social media is reshaping how information is accessed and interpreted, affecting recent elections in multiple countries.
Perspectives from Leaders and Experts
Surveyed leaders express deep concern about the global outlook, with half expecting a turbulent or stormy environment over the next two years, marking a 14-point increase from last year. For the decade ahead, 57% foresee continued turbulence, while a small minority anticipate stability or calm.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi emphasized that while these risks present significant challenges, they are not inevitable and underscore the need for collective action.
Emerging Competitive Order and Societal Divides
WEF President and CEO Borge Brende described a shifting global order where major powers seek to secure their interests, making cooperation and dialogue essential despite changing dynamics.
Rising societal and political polarisation is increasing pressure on democratic systems, with extremist movements challenging institutions and public trust. Narratives pitting “streets versus elites” reflect growing disillusionment with traditional governance, leaving many citizens feeling excluded and skeptical about policy effectiveness.
The report highlights deep divisions worldwide between groups defending established values and those advocating for change, with previously marginalized groups gaining political influence.
Conclusion
The Global Risks Report 2026 provides a comprehensive overview of immediate, short-term, and long-term global risks. It underscores how escalating geopolitical tensions, economic vulnerabilities, societal fractures, and technological advancements are shaping a complex risk landscape. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated efforts and renewed commitment to multilateral cooperation.
