Pakistan’s Economy Grows 2.4% in Q3 FY2024-25

Pakistan’s economy posted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.4% in the third quarter (January–March) of the fiscal year 2024-25, according to provisional estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) during the 113th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) held on Tuesday.

This growth came despite a significant contraction in the industrial sector, which shrank by -1.14% in Q3. The overall growth was driven by positive performances in agriculture and services, which expanded by 1.18% and 3.99%, respectively.

Sectoral Breakdown:

Agriculture Sector:

• The agriculture sector posted a modest 1.18% growth despite a decline of -11.14% in important crops.
• The overall positive result came from:
  • Other crops (+4.84%), bolstered by a 26% rise in mango production and an 11% increase in onion output.
  • Livestock (+4.42%)
  • Forestry (+4.25%)
  • Fishing (+0.50%)

Industry Sector:

• The sector saw a decline of -1.14%, primarily due to:
  • Mining & Quarrying (-3.96%)
  • Large-Scale Manufacturing (-0.89%)
  • Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (-7.72%)
  • Construction (-9.12%)

Services Sector:

• The services sector saw a healthy 3.99% growth, supported by:
  • Information & Communication (+18.44%)
  • Finance & Insurance (+10.65%)
  • Public Administration & Social Security (+13.73%)
  • Other contributing areas include education (+4.63%), health & social work (+5.06%), and wholesale & retail trade (+1.57%).

Revised and Provisional GDP Estimates:

• Q1 and Q2 GDP growths for FY2023-24 were also updated:
  • Q1: Revised to 1.37% (from 1.34%)
  • Q2: Revised to 1.53% (from 1.73%)
• The provisional GDP growth for the full FY2024-25 is 2.68%, which is below the government’s target of 3.6%.

Sectoral Contributions to FY2024-25 Provisional Growth:

• Agriculture: +0.56%
• Industry: +4.77%
• Services: +2.91%

Economic Size and Per Capita Income:

• Total size of Pakistan’s economy:
  • Rs114.7 trillion (~$410.96 billion) in FY2024-25
  • Compared to Rs105.1 trillion (~$371.66 billion) previously
• Per capita income: Rs509,174 (~$1,824)

Expert Outlook:

In a note, Topline Securities projected FY2024-25 GDP growth between 2.5% and 3.0%, driven by:

• Agriculture: 1.8%
• Industry: 1%
• Services: 3.4%

Meanwhile, the final growth figure for FY2022-23 was also updated to -0.21%, a slight adjustment from the previous estimate of -0.22%.