Islamabad — April 24, 2025:
Pakistan’s economy is showing steady signs of recovery, with key macroeconomic indicators pointing toward stabilization and growth, according to the Ministry of Finance’s latest Monthly Economic Update and Outlook. However, officials remain cautiously optimistic due to potential inflationary risks in the coming months.
The Ministry forecasts inflation in April to hover between 1.5% and 2% on a month-on-month basis, with a possible rise to 3–4% in May. The report attributes the expected increase to seasonal demand trends and external price shocks, including fluctuations in global fuel and commodity prices.
External Sector Gains Ground
A major highlight of the report is Pakistan’s current account surplus, which has remained positive for the third consecutive month, reaching $1.85 billion during the first nine months of the current fiscal year. This turnaround is largely credited to strong remittance inflows and a rebound in export activity.
- Remittances surged by 33%, surpassing the $28 billion mark.
- Exports hit $24 billion, driven by textile products and increased demand in Gulf and Western markets.
Revenue and Investment On the Rise
The report also underscores fiscal progress:
- Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) recorded a 25% year-on-year growth in tax collection.
- Non-tax revenues grew by 9%, bringing the total to Rs3,922 billion.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased 14%, totaling $1.64 billion.
Labour and Industry Rebound
The labor market also reflected positive momentum:
- 58,555 Pakistanis were employed abroad in March.
- Overseas employment registrations rose by 17% compared to February.
On the industrial front, the report notes a resurgence in manufacturing, including automobile production and raw material imports, indicating growing business confidence.
In agriculture, favorable weather conditions and improved water availability are expected to boost the upcoming crop season.
Inflation Remains a Watchpoint
Despite the economic gains, the Finance Ministry warned that inflationary pressures—especially those imported from global markets—could erode purchasing power and pose a risk to ongoing recovery. Domestic supply-side challenges and energy prices will need to be closely monitored.
Still, the government remains hopeful that fiscal consolidation, sectoral reforms, and improved governance will help sustain growth and economic resilience.
