A research paper published by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday projected Pakistan to be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.
The Path to 2075, a report by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas, projected that by 2075, China, India, the US, Indonesia, and Nigeria would be the five greatest economies.
For almost two decades, Goldman Sachs has projected the long-term growth of countries, initially starting with the BRICs economies, but over the past ten years, they have expanded those predictions to cover 70 emerging and developed economies.
Their latest paper covers 104 countries with projections going as far as 2075.
According to Goldman Sachs, Pakistan’s population expansion, together with those of Egypt and Nigeria, could push the country into the top three economies in the world in the next 50 years.
By that time, the research projects Pakistan’s Real GDP to have grown to $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to $27,100.
These numbers, however, are projected to be less than a third of the size of China, India, and the US. India’s Real GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300.
Among key risks to their projections, the economists particularly highlight “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism”.
Climate change might significantly skew these estimates unless a path to sustainable prosperity is assured through a globally coordinated response, especially for nations like Pakistan with particularly vulnerable geographic regions.
With populist nationalists coming to power in many countries, the report says it might lead to increased protectionism that could potentially result in the reversal of globalization, thereby increasing income inequality across countries.
According to the analysis, the rise of populist nationalism could result in greater protectionism, which could potentially reverse globalisation and increase income inequality across nations.