Pakistan’s Wheat Production Faces Challenges Amid Policy Shifts
ISLAMABAD: The decision to remove government support prices, combined with declining domestic wheat rates, has significantly impacted Pakistan’s current sowing season. Many wheat farmers have opted to cultivate more profitable cash crops, such as mustard and pulses, instead.
A recent UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report, titled Country Brief on Pakistan, highlights a decline in wheat plantation due to the government’s removal of the minimum support price (MSP) in May 2024. This shift has raised concerns about the country’s wheat production in 2025, which now largely depends on rainfall performance until April.
Weather Impact on Wheat Crops
Despite lower-than-average rainfall and warmer temperatures between October 2024 and early February 2025, wheat crops in irrigated areas have remained in average to above-average condition, supported by adequate water supply.
However, rain-fed (barani) areas, which constitute about 20% of total wheat plantations, have suffered due to prolonged dry spells. FAO’s Agriculture Stress Index (ASI) recorded signs of drought conditions in these regions, particularly in northern Pakistan, which could affect overall wheat yield.
Record Cereal Production in 2024
The 2024 cropping season concluded in December, with Pakistan recording a historical high of 56.6 million tonnes of total cereal production.
- Wheat production: 31.4 million tonnes (record high)
- Rice production: 15.2 million tonnes (boosted by high market prices)
- Maize production: 9.5 million tonnes (average yield)
Decline in Wheat Imports
Pakistan’s wheat import demand for 2024-25 (April-March) is expected to be negligible, thanks to record-high domestic production.
Between 2020 and 2024, the country imported large volumes of wheat due to poor harvests (2018-2020) and stock losses from the devastating 2022 floods. However, with 2024’s bumper crop, the need for imports has significantly decreased.
Meanwhile, rice exports—a major source of foreign exchange—are expected to reach 5.5 million tonnes in 2025, a slight drop from the 6.5 million tonnes exported in 2024 due to increased competition in international markets. Maize exports are forecast to remain stable at 500,000 tonnes.
Domestic Wheat Prices and Market Impact
Wheat flour prices dropped significantly between March and June 2024, driven by an abundant supply from record harvests. The Punjab government’s decision to halt wheat procurement from farmers further flooded the market, leading to lower prices.
Food Security Outlook
Pakistan’s food security situation is improving, as per the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report. The number of people facing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) is expected to decline:
- November 2024 – March 2025: 11 million people at risk
- April – July 2025: 10 million people at risk (improvement due to wheat stocks)
The decline in wheat flour prices and the upcoming 2025 wheat harvest in April are expected to improve food accessibility for vulnerable populations.
